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June 15, 2020, GMT+0000, 3:11 am
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Will Odds on a Second Referendum Fall After Labour Statement?

The Brexit drama shows no sign of slowing down does it? With the UK due to leave the European Union on March 29, the next few weeks are going to be even more hectic than ever.

With more votes in Parliament this week (but not a ‘meaningful vote’), we’ll either see some progress made or total stalemate. Labour threw another spanner in the works when on Monday (February 25) when a more positive approach towards a second referendum was announced.

Conference Vote Adopted

Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn declared that if their proposed Brexit deal was turned down by Parliament, they’d look at a second referendum. That’s a policy that Corbyn may not totally agree with but one his party voted for at their last Conference. With the possibility of more resignations, it’s the Labour Leader’s turn to be put in a difficult position.

It’s currently 4/9 (1.44) at Betfair that there won’t be a second referendum. PM Theresa May seems convinced she will be able to get some kind of deal agreed with the EU and then passed by Parliament. If that happens, no referendum is needed.

Even More Delay

The odds on another public vote are 5/2 (3.5) at Bet365. If somehow that does happen, then you can forget about March 29 being the day we leave the EU. Such a vote takes a while to organize and could end up being held alongside the council elections in May.

It might be a clever move by Jeremy Corbyn because it’s likely he’s proposing something he knows won’t happen. It’s unlikely there is a majority in the Commons on a second referendum.

Corbyn can just make his statement and keep a few party members happy. Just talking about it in a more positive manner is a bit dangerous with accusations likely of the policy denying the views from the first referendum.

It adds yet more intrigue to the situation and second vote or not, the odds on Article 50 being extended are as short as 1/7 (1.14) at Paddy Power. It seems this is a story that is simply going to run and run.

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