A recent poll suggested that Donald Trump would poll at most 42% despite his Democratic opponent being unknown. Delving deeper, the pollsters found the current President of the United States trailed by anywhere between 5 and 12 percentage points.
That’s a boost for any of the nominees whether or not they declared to run for the Democrats.
And a number already declared even with a couple of the big guns still to officially put themselves forward as candidates to be a candidate to become the 46th President of the United States.
When Does It Happen?
The caucuses and primaries are set to begin on 3rd February 2020 in Iowa. From there, three-to-five take place in 40 states with a further 18 still to be scheduled.
At the end of it all comes the Democratic National Convention which takes place between 13 – 16 July 2020. There, the nominees will be whittled down to the nomination for the Presidential race.
The Big Fish
The Senator for California is the current favourite for the nomination at 3/1. She only polled seven better than Trump last month, leading 48 – 41 but she ticks the boxes with voters: African-American, female and from the right side of the political tracks in California.
Her problem may be Elizabeth Warren’s declaration. The female voting block may be split by two strong women. Can the pair run as an all-female dream team? That solution may see the older of the two run against Trump.
Best odds: 16/5 from 10bet
O’Rourke is everything Trump isn’t; young, energetic and likeable. His Senate campaign against Ted Cruz put the former Texas Representative firmly in the spotlight as far as the nomination is concerned. A road trip listening to voters, recorded in a blog, showed a populist touch yet no formal declaration is forthcoming. Despite this, he is widely seen as a 6/1 shot.
However, with the Democrats leaning toward a female and/or ethnic candidate, there is talk of O’Rourke running for Senate again next year, or at best vice-president.
Best Odds: 7/1 with Betfair exchange
Last time, Sanders was beaten to the nomination by Hilary Clinton despite holding great appeal across the more youthful Democratic element. Without running, he accumulated more than 110k votes in the 2016 Presidential election.
His popularity has yet to wane although he is widely seen as an 8/1 candidate. Age will count against him with Sanders being the oldest of the nominees.
Sanders is believed to be the reason the Democrats moved leftwards with his stance on minimum wage, health-care and college tuition striking a chord with the base.
Best Odds: 8/1 with Ladbrokes
Warren’s declaration provided a boost to her polling numbers which had taken a huge hit following a DNA test designed to prove she was Native American. Trump routinely denigrates her as ‘Pocahontas’ on social media which appears to sit comfortably with his supporters.
The fallout from the debacle is certainly something which isn’t going to be forgotten by her opponents and in the Presidential race, sink her candidacy.
Her nomination is built on a solid career forensically analysing corruption and progressive economics. In that sense, she is a better candidate than her 12/1 offerings suggest.
Best Odds: 14/1 with Unibet.
The Senator from Missouri rose to public attention primarily with an eviscerating opposition to the appointment of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court. She is not as ideologically sound as Elizabeth Warren, Klobaucher is a more centrist candidate.
Her Mid-West power-base is a real threat to Trump and her relatively moderate stance sets her as electable in the rest of the country.
Best Odds: 16/1 with SportPesa
The Novelty Bets
These are the candidates you won’t believe you can get odds on:
|Neil deGrasse Tyson||45/1|
Odds courtesy of Unibet.com
President Dwayne Johnson? It appeals and if Ronald Reagan can reach the peak of political life, can he really be ruled out. This time around, probably.