Before Christmas, it seemed Theresa May’s world was collapsing in on itself. In the space of a week, she would see her Brexit deal decimated by the House of Commons while Tory rebels triggered a vote of confidence in her.
May headed off the decimation – or rather, put it off to another day – and rode out the storm in the 1922 Committee room. To a degree; she agreed to see the country through Brexit which suited everyone really since if it goes wrong, she is to blame. If it goes well, there will no shortage of takers for her plaudits.
However, the price of staying on was also not to lead the Conservative Party into the next General Election. Now, as everyone is well aware, a politician’s word is worth very little indeed. In the Bible, the snake which tempted Adam and Eve to eat the apple was clearly a politician moonlighting with his smooth coercive words.
But if May won’t lead the Tories into the next election, when will it be? Speculation is rife that she will stand down in July (2019 is 4/6 with 888sport) which would most likely see us heading to the polls in 2020. Ladbrokes are offering 4/9 on that it won’t take place before the end of this year.
If you really think it will happen in 2019, Mansion Bet offers 7/5 which are some of the best odds in the market.
If there is a new leader of the party, the reality is that it will be at least a year before they go to the country. If you fancy a May 2020 election – and four of the last six have been May elections – Coral is offering 5/1. The other two of those six were held in June which is 8/1.
The later in the year we travel, the less likely bookmakers think it that we will have an election. The summer months drift out to 33/1 with August at 66/1 presumably because of the chaos this would cause with summer holidays.
Beyond 2019, 2021 is the longest shot with 7/1 while 2022, the latest date it can be held, is 9/5 with Marathon Bet.
Who Will Win?
Until the announcement of seven defections from the Labour Party this week, Jeremy Corbyn was on course to do well. He may still do; a lot depends on whether other MPs leave and if any from the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats join the rebels.
For the Conservatives, everything hinges on Brexit and who replaces May. The party’s choice of a new leader may not chime with the rest of the country with the loathsome Boris Johnson seemingly the housewives choice of the Conservative Associations the length and breadth of the land. Not too popular with their husbands but that’s a whole different story.
The outcome of the vote is expected to be a hung parliament with Betfred offering 11/10. It’s this outcome which is most under threat from the Labour Party splinter. Anything more, for example, if it turns into a schism, and the Conservative Party will be the major beneficiary.
There is an interesting question mark over Jeremy Corbyn. His enthusiasm helped build momentum on the hustings last time around. Can he generate the same response from the next generation of young voters?
Or will the Conservative Party steal Labour’s thunder with some policies being adapted to make them more appealing to the electorate when the issue of Brexit morphs into general economic issues?
It’s a two-horse race as far as the bookmakers are concerned. The Tory Party is 2/1 with Unibet to claim an overall majority while Labour is 7/2 with bet365. Thrown in a raft of tax cuts at the budget before the election and the differential between the two may grow further.
Who Will Be Next Prime Minister?
Almost contradictorily to the question of ‘Who will win the next election?’, the odds favour Jeremy Corbyn on being next Prime Minister. Whether that is as a minority government or a fully-fledged coalition is the interesting question.
The Labour Leader is as far out as 5/1 with Coral which is roughly were Michael Gove sits. However, you can find his odds at 7/1 with BoyleSports.
Other Conservative MPs in the running are:
Boris Johnson – 7/1 Ladbrokes
Dominic Raab – 12/1 Betfred
Sajid Javid – 12/1 Coral
Jeremy Hunt – 14/1 Betfred