With each passing day it seems incredible that U.S. President Donald Trump has managed to remain in office as long as he has. Towards the end of last year, a growing number of bookies around the world began accepting wagers on if and when he will be impeached.
In late 2018, as further evidence from the Michael Cohen case was presented, Democrats took the House of Representatives and the government shutdown continued, odds of Trump being impeached in his first term steadily increased.
Two days ago, with the release of a fresh new Buzzfeed article implying that Trump directed his former lawyer Michael Cohen to lie to Congress, chances again increased dramatically. On the real-time public betting platform PredictIt, odds that Trump will be impeached in his first term shot up from around 38 percent to 51 percent.
The Buzzfeed article, published on Thursday, alleges that President Trump instructed attorney Michael Cohen to lie to Congress regarding the construction of a Trump Tower in Moscow. Trump had previously stated publically that he had no business dealings with Russia.
However, special counsel Robert Mueller has since disputed the allegations, throwing an extra level of confusion into the mix and further affecting the predicted odds. Buzzfeed editor in chief Ben Smith responded by saying the publication stands by its reporting and would like Mueller to clarify what he’s disputing.
Following Robert Muellers dispute of the Buzzfeed article, PredictIt’s payout price on the dollar dropped sharply today from 54c to 49c while betting volume increased ten-fold since the article was released.
Unibet currently offers 5/4 odds that Trump will be impeached in 2019 and 5/2 odds of it happening in 2020.
Bet365 offers 5/6 odds that he will be impeached within his first term and Smarkets give 11/10 odds that articles of impeachment be passed against trump during first term.