Wednesday 1 May: 7.45pm

Derby County have hit form at just the right time of the season. The weekend saw them get a vital win at Bristol City and they begin this penultimate Championship game of the regular season in sixth place. A win at Swansea City will all but guarantee Frank Lampard’s team a place in the play-offs. Swansea City are 11th in the table but their poor away form has condemned them to another season outside of the Premier League.

Latest Odds

There was a time a few decades ago when Derby County v Leeds United was a cert to be the first game shown on ‘Match of the Day.’ In May 2019 it may be a game in the semi-finals of the Championship promotion play-offs. Leeds look like filling third place in the table after a disappointing end to the season and Derby County could all but clinch sixth place if they win at Swansea City.

Derby County currently hold the final play-off position and are ahead of Middlesbrough on goal difference. They have won their last two league games and have ten points from their last 12 games. Going three points up on Boro with one game to go should qualify them as their goal difference is already six goals better. Derby are 6/1 (7.0) at William Hill to win promotion this season.

Saturday saw them win 2-0 at Bristol City to severely dent the home side’s promotion hopes. That was an important win for Derby in more ways than one. Their away form has been terrible of late and before Saturday’s victory, they had earned just four points from their last eight away league games. It’s 13/10 (2.3) at BetVictor that they can beat Swansea City on Wednesday evening. To do so though requires them to win two away league games in a row for the first time this season.

Swansea City are 11th in the Championship and their hopes of an immediate return to the Premier League are over. They trail Derby by seven point with two games remaining. It looked as if they might still have an outside chance of promotion when they led Hull City 2-0 on Saturday with just 14 minutes to go. The Welsh side couldn’t hang onto that lead though and drew 2-2.

It’s easy to see just why Swansea City won’t be winning promotion this season. Their away form is the reason with seven successive league defeats before a win at relegated Ipswich Town. 12 away league games have been lost this season and not even a home record that has seen them win 12 times could get them in the top six.

Swansea City had won six straight home league games before the draw with Hull City. They will be a big danger to Derby County in this game. You can get odds of 21/10 (3.1) at Bet365 on them winning their final home match of the season.

Head-to-Head

Derby County have won their last two games against Swansea City. Both victories were by a 2-1 scoreline and if you go to SkyBet they will give you 17/2 (9.5) on that being the final score in Wednesday’s match.

Team News

No major injuries reported.

Low Scoring Game Likely

A home game against Derby County hasn’t got the reputation of being a goalfest. The last five have all had under 2.5 goals scored in them. The odds on that happening on Wednesday are 5/4 (2.25) if placing your wager with Betfair.

McBurnie in Form

If there are to be goals in this game then they could well come from Oliver McBurnie. He’s scored twice in each of the last two home league games. You can get odds of 7/1 (8.0) at Paddy Power on him scoring twice in this game and he’s available at 8/5 (2.6) at Unibet to score anytime in the match.

Prediction

Derby County have hit form at the right time of the season. They don’t have the easiest of run-ins with this game followed by a home match against fourth-placed West Bromwich Albion. Swansea are a strong side at home and a draw in this game with both teams scoring is 16/5 (4.2) when betting with Coral.

Published by Steve Ashfield

Steve is a self-employed freelance writer with years of experience writing about everything from sport to politics. He loves his statistics and quotes them at every opportunity.

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