On 28th April 2019, the Spanish electorate will vote in their third General Election in three-and-a-half years. Such is the perverse nature of the country’s politics, it will be to elect their fourth government in that time. 

Current Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez (PSOE party leader) took power when an alliance of opposition parties unseated the previous incumbent Mariano Rajoy (PP party leader). There is no small irony that this election was called because Sánchez failed to form enough of an alliance to pass his planned budget. 

At the polls, Spaniards will vote for all 350 seats in the lower house, the Congress of Deputies, and 208 of the 266 seats in the upper house, the Senate. 

Controversy Over Date 

The People’s Party (PP) criticised Pedro Sánchez for his choice of 28th April as the first week of campaigning coincides with the Easter holidays.  

PP general secretary Teodoro García Egea told reporters that the festivities will be marred by the level of political posters and banners when the lampposts should be “covered with the symbols of religious brotherhoods and to celebrate the Friday of Sorrows the way God meant it to be celebrated.” 

Latest Opinion Polls 

Reporting on the latest opinion polls, Reuters noted that the Congress of Deputies is likely to end hung with no single party having a clear majority. 

According to the GESOP poll, current Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez is set to his party win around 30 more seats, totalling 115 – 117 and some way short of the 176 required for control of the Congress. 

Most of those gains will come at the expense of the PP, which would lose around 60 seats with their presence falling to around 75. Even with the 44 – 47 seats Ciudadanos are expected to win, both the PP and PSOE will need the help of the regionalist parties to form a coalition government. 

The party most are watching is Vox. Having won just one seat in the Senate in 2016, the first opinion poll since the election called shows they are likely to win 47 seats this time around.   

From 12 seats in Andalusia’s parliament to being kingmakers in national government? It’s a meteoric rise for the far-right party, that’s for sure. 

The precarious nature of opinion polls is a second poll which emerged, showing the ultranationalists are set to win just 16 seats. While they may still be needed to form a coalition, their influence will be neutered. 

It leaves Pedro Sánchez looking to the Catalan independence parties to form a government. The same Catalan independence parties whose leaders are standing trial, prosecuted by Sánchez’s government. Well, that’s awkward… 

Current Odds: 

According to sportingbet, the latest odds are: 

PSOE  4/5  

PP  3/2 

Ciudadanos  6/1  

Podemos20/1 

 VOX25/1 

Published by Stuart Stratford

Stuart is a freelance writer based in the UK with more than a dozen years experience. He previously worked with Daily Mail betting, 10bet, Betway, Come On and a number of other international bookmakers, as well as ITV and Goal. Contact Stuart at stuart@aclfarsenal.co.uk.

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