There is a new breed of political journalist in the United States. Independent pundits like Michael Tracey,
Aaron Maté and Joe Rogan consider themselves brokers in fairness. When President Donald Trump does something beneficial to people, they’re the first to praise. When he does something wrong, they lampoon him. Most of all the “intellectual dark web” takes Trump seriously as a political and legal force, brushing aside the mainstream media narrative that 45 is constantly hanging by a thread.
But even the intellectual dark web would admit when betting odds on Trump are wildly optimistic. In fact, it appears that gamblers at at least one online betting site are more confident in the POTUS than even some of his biggest fans on Fox News.
MyBookie’s betting odds on the U.S. Politics proposition “Will President Trump be elected for a 2nd term as POTUS?” are a baffling (-300) or 1/3 for “yes.” The “no” market is paying off at 2-to-1.
In contrast, the main market at Bovada Sportsbook gives Trump only a 2/1 line to win a 2nd term.
Why the vast discrepancy? One theory is that there are simply more Trump supporters betting at MyBookie than at Bovada Sportsbook. Bovada is the far bigger operation and has a social media presence. Perhaps there is just a more politically-conservative base among the clients at MyBookie.
But that doesn’t explain everything. Gamblers do not like to throw money away no matter how strong their opinions might be (see the scant betting action on “yes” in Trump removal-from-office markets), and partisans of a sports club or a political party are often just as likely to bet against the outcomes they’re hoping for, using reverse psychology to bring about a good result or at least a consolation cash payoff.
Trump’s chances for reelection may be handicapped somewhere in between the 1/3 line-to-win at MyBookie and the 2/1 odds at Bovada. Incumbent commanders-in-chief have a natural advantage in elections, and the President will have the luxury of taking on a Democratic Party split between its left and moderate wings. But his advantages are over-estimated by anyone who thinks 1/3 is a fair betting line for the upcoming reelection bid.
45’s go-to election strategy is to generate heavy turnout and render the poll numbers insignificant. Bernie Sanders, a Democrat whose specialty is out-performing his poll numbers, recently announced a 2020 bid for the Oval Office and shot to the top of primary race alongside former VP Joe Biden and Senator Kamala Harris. Not a bad stable of horses.
It is difficult to say which of the pair of betting markets is priced more inaccurately at this stage. But we strongly advise gamblers to play any Trump-to-win wagers at MyBookie and any Trump-to-lose bets at Bovada.
Photo from Twitter.