It’s been another dramatic week in British politics. Eight Labour MP’s and three more from the Conservative Party have resigned their party whips and formed ‘The Independent Group.’ What does the future hold for the group and how much influence will they have on the next General Election?

As yet, none of the MP”s have announced that they will resign their seats and fight a by-election. If they do it’s going to be interesting to see just how they’d get on. At present, they are a group not a party. There’s no manifesto, they are just a group of politicians unhappy at the way their previous parties are being run.

Of the 11 MP’s, two are in minority constituencies. Anna Soubry has a majority of only 863 votes and Angela Smith’s is just over 1300. Several have massive majorities but that’s not exactly good news.

Large Majorities Don’t Guarantee Success

Former Conservative MP Sarah Woolaston has a majority of 13,477 in a constituency that has elected a Tory MP for over 90 years. Are they suddenly going to re-elect Woolaston as an Independent? Mike Gapes has held his constituency for over 25 years with a 30,000 majority. Chuka Amunna’s majority is 26,285 so that’s another safe Labour seat. The politicians may be keen to change their allegiance but can you say that about the electorate?

Betway have opened a market on how many of the Independent Group will retain their seats at the next General Election. It’s 11/8 (2.37) that only one is successful and 2/1 (3.0) that not one of them keeps their seat.

Baffling Odds

Not great news then for them at all is it? However, it makes the Betway market on whether the Independent Group will win the most seats at the General Election a bit strange. They are offering odds of just 20/1 (21.0) on that happening. For them to achieve that would need a miracle considering our first past the post voting system.

We’ve already had one coalition government this century, could another be on the way? Betway offer odds of 5/2 (3.5) on the Independent Group forming part of a coalition Government after the next General Election. A lot of water will flow under the political bridge in the months and years ahead that is for sure.

Published by Steve Ashfield

Steve is a self-employed freelance writer with years of experience writing about everything from sport to politics. He loves his statistics and quotes them at every opportunity.

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