UK Prime Minister Theresa May suffered a widely-predicted defeat in the Commons on Tuesday as her Brexit deal was voted down by a margin of 230. But the historic loss, which is one of the largest ever by a UK government, has not shifted the political betting markets.  

432 MPs voted against the deal while only 202 supported it and in the aftermath of the result, Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn lodged a vote of no confidence in the government. In the normal course of political events, a massive defeat of this scale on a flagship policy – in this case, delivering Brexit – would lead to the resignation of the Prime Minister, but May gave every indication that she was going to fight on and seek another Brexit deal with the EU, ahead of the March 29 deadline.  

And with the Parliamentary arithmetic on her side, bookmakers are predicting that May will survive the no confidence vote. On Wednesday morning, Betfair priced a government victory in the vote, to be held on Wednesday evening, at 1/7, with a defeat at 4/1. At the same time, Paddy Power also favoured the government’s survival at 1/5, although they cut the odds on May leaving office during this week from 7/1 at the start of the week to 2/1.  

Image from 123RF.

Published by Marcus Holland

Marcus Holland is a professional betting and financial trading writer. He has been published on various leading websites including The Street,,, and Futures Mag. You can contact Marcus at

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