A Presidency that began on shaky ground has become increasingly turbulent to the point of crashing completely. Will Atkinson looks at betting markets to see how likely it is that Trump will remain in power and whether he is planing towards impeachment.
The first two years of the Trump presidency have been some of the most strange and brutal years in American politics. Scandal, accusations of Russian collusion along with federal investigation have been synonymous of the Trump White House.
A serving president hasn’t been in such a precarious situation since the days of the infamous Watergate Scandal under the Nixon administration. Following the November midterms, the Democrats took over control of the House of Representatives. Since then, talk of impeachment and if Trump can even survive his presidency has been on the rise.
Betting on Trump
The Trump presidency has proved to be popular amongst bettors. The unpredictable and uncertain nature of his administration has given rise to some truly interesting odds.
With the investigation from special counsel report Muller nearing its conclusion, and with an ever increasing number of Trump’s inner circle facing prosecution, betting companies odds offerings are beginning to reflect the growing consensus about a potential Trump impeachment. Betfair, for example, now have a market that favours Donald Trump to be impeached. They currently have odds of 6/4 regarding a Trump impeachment occurring during his first term.
Given the fact that the Democrats now control the House of Representatives, and therefore a major hurdle for any potential impeachment case against the President being removed, expect to see odds that are favourable to a potential Trump impeachment become commonplace.
Things move fast in the Trump presidency. Last week’s scandal or crisis is often forgotten as a new week brings another controversial talking point. The most recent development is that the long term Trump advisor Roger Stone has been arrested and charged by the FBI. With his campaign manager, personal lawyer and now one of his most trusted advisor being incriminated in illegalities concerning his campaign, the walls are closing in very tight on President Trump.
With Trump presiding over the longest government shutdown in U.S history, the odds of the President winning re-election have become longer. The shutdown lasted for 35 days and affected some 800,000 federal workers. Betting companies currently have Trump at 9/5 to win re-election with odds continuing to lengthen as Americans become more disillusioned with his policies that include the controversial Southern Border Wall. One look at confidence vote statistics shows how dissatisfied the American population has become.
However, he does remain a betting favourite. This is mainly due to the fact the election season has yet to truly begin, with prospective nominees just beginning to declare their candidacies. As the Democratic and Republican fields begin to take shape, which candidate is the betting favourite will become clearer. A common phrase is that a week is a long time in politics. Under the Trump presidency, days and even hours seem can seem like ancient history. It makes betting and trying to predict what will happen for President Trump a goliath task, but one that can reap worthwhile rewards for punters