Sunday 5 May: 12.30pm KO
Live on Sky Sports Football
Derby County could only draw at Swansea City on Wednesday and their hopes of a promotion play-off position are in the balance. Their final fixture is home to West Bromwich Albion who are fourth in the Championship table but could yet grab third place off Leeds United.
Derby County have had a few near misses when it comes to reaching the promotion play-offs in the Championship. They are in danger of doing that again as they play this final league fixure against West Bromwich Albion. County are in the final play-off place but only lead Middlesbrough (away to Rotherham United) by a point and Bristol City (away to Hull City) by two points.
Their goal difference is superior to their two rivals but a win over West Brom will take them into the play-offs. A draw would see them lose out if Middlesbrough win their final game. The odds on Derby finishing in the top six are 4/9 (1.44) at SkyBet and it’s 7/1 (8.0) at William Hill that they win promotion to the Premier League this season.
Derby are in good form at present with three wins and two draws from their last five league games. It’s their away performances that have caused this final-day drama as Derby have won just one of their last nine league matches.
Home form is better though with only one league defeat in the last 13. Each of their last three home matches have been won with 12 goals being scored. There are odds of them winning this game are 10/11 (1.91) at Ladbrokes. It’d be their 13th home win of the campaign if they are victorious on Sunday in what could be the first of three consecutive games against West Brom.
Albion are 4/1 (5.0) with Bet365 to win promotion back to the Premier League at the first time of asking. They begin this game in fourth place and only three points behind Leeds in third. With a better goal difference, a win at Derby will see them finish in third if Leeds were to lose at relegated Ipswich. That could set up a semi-final against Derby if results went County’s way.
It’s more likely though that West Brom will finish fourth and end up in a titanic battle with local rivals Aston Villa. West Brom have won three of their last four league games and six out of nine since sacking Darren Moore as manager.
Away form had been solid this season with 11 wins from their first 19 but it’s gone downhill of late. They have no wins in their last three with defeats at both Millwall and Bristol City. Only Norwich City and Sheffield United, the two promoted sides have scored more away league goals than Albion. Their last game was a 0-0 draw at Reading and that’s just three goals in their last five away matches. The odds on them winning at Derby County are 3/1 (4.0) at BetVictor.
Derby County have only lost one of their last five games against West Brom. The last four games between these two sides have seen both of them score. At Paddy Power they will give you odd of 4/7 (1.57) on both Derby and West Brom scoring in this match.
West Brom may fancy making a few changes to rest players for the play-offs but by EFL rules have to name 10 of the squad that played their last match.
Two Goals for Derby
Derby County have scored at least twice in each of their last three home league games. The odds on them scoring at least two goals against West Brom are 8/11 (1.72) with SkyBet.
Dwight Gayle is in good scoring form for West Brom. He’s scored five goals in their last four matches. You can get odds of 15/8 (2.62) on him scoring in this match.
Derby led in midweek but ended up drawing at Swansea City. That’s left them biting their fingernails over whether they will make the play-offs or not. West Brom at home isn’t the ideal last fixture and a bet on a draw with both teams to score has odds of 7/2 (4.5) at Betfred.