Saturday 13 April: 3pm
Derby County slipped to eighth place in the Championship after another loss on Tuesday evening (April 9). They desperately need to get back in winning ways and the same applies to their opponents Bolton Wanderers who are battling relegation.
Fans of Derby County must be thinking it’s the same old story being written again. They spend most of the season in the play-off places and then when spring arrives, it all starts to go wrong again. That’s what is happening at present, though the collapse started a little bit early this season.
They have just two wins from their last ten league games and lost 2-0 at Blackburn Rovers on Tuesday. That defeat took them down to eighth in the Championship but they are still only three points away from the top six a the time of writing this preview. That gap could extend to five points if Aston Villa win at Rotherham United on Wednesday (April 10). The odds on County being promoted this season are now as high as 25/1 (26.0) at Betfair.
It all started going wrong for Frank Lampard’s men in mid-February with a home loss to Millwall. Away defeats at Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa (where they conceded four first-half goals) followed before a home win over Wigan Athletic.
The last five games have produced three draws and a big 6-1 win over Rotherham United. Their last two league games have both been played away and they missed a golden chance to get three points at Brentford on April 6. They led 1-0, 2-1 and 3-2 but a goal seven minutes from time saw them leave with a 3-3 draw.
To keep their promotion hopes alive, they simply have to beat Bolton Wanderers on Saturday. The odds on them doing that are 4/9 (1.44) at Unibet.
Bolton Wanderers are in desperate trouble down at the bottom of the table. They are 150/1 (151.0) at SkyBet to stay up this season. That’s because they are currently 23rd in the table and eight points from safety. Combine that with off-the-field problems that include winding-up orders and players going on strike and they are having a nightmare at the moment.
The loss at home to out-of-form Middlesbrough on Tuesday evening was their fourth defeat in the last five league games. There had been a few signs of a fightback with wins over Millwall and QPR but they look doomed to playing in League One next season. Away form has seen them lose 12 of their 20 league games this season. Only four away league games have been won (including their last one at QPR) but two of those were the first couple of away matches played in August. They are 7/1 (8.0) to beat Derby County on Saturday.
The reverse fixture between these two teams ended in a 1-0 win for Bolton but that was back in September. Before that, Derby had won five out of six and at home have won the last three scoring 11 goals. There are odds of 10/11 (1.91) on over 2.5 goals being scored in this match.
No major injury worries have been reported after the midweek games.
Two Goals in the Second Half?
Each of the last three Derby County league games has seen two goals scored. At Bet365 the odds on over 1.5 goals being scored in the second half are 1/1 (2.0.
Wilson and Waghorn to Score?
Derby County’s top two goal scorers are Harry Wilson and Martyn Waghorn. Wilson scored twice against Brentford and Waghorn hit a hat-trick in the recent hammering of Rotherham United. The odds of Wilson scoring at least two goals in this game are 11/1 (12.0) at Paddy Power. It’s 15/2 (8.5) on Waghorn scoring a couple of goals.
Derby County have to get three points from this game and that is the most likely result. Their opponents are on their way down and lacking confidence. A bet on Derby to win and over 1.5 goals being scored has odds of 3/4 (1.75) at Coral.