Odds against Independent Group Keeping Seats

It’s been another dramatic week in British politics. Eight Labour MP’s and three more from the Conservative Party have resigned their party whips and formed ‘The Independent Group.’ What does the future hold for the group and how much influence will they have on the next General Election? As yet, none of the MP”s have …

Political Betting: After Brexit, Which Country Will Be Next To Leave EU

In January 2019, thirty Nobel laureates, historians and writers co-signed a treatise. Their central plank was quelling the rise of populist politics in Europe. It was, they said, time to “fight for the idea of Europe or see it perish beneath the wave of populism”.  The fundamental risk was seeing everything built on closer relations …

Jussie Smollett Hoax Spawns its Own Genre of Vegas Gambling Odds

The past few years have produced a number of surreal moments in U.S. politics and news coverage. Yet another milestone-of-weird has been reached with the bizarre Jussie Smollett case, an episode in which a supporting actor on the TV show Empire allegedly hired his personal trainer and a friend to dress up like Donald Trump …

UK General Election Odds: A Week Is A Long Time In Politics

Before Christmas, it seemed Theresa May’s world was collapsing in on itself. In the space of a week, she would see her Brexit deal decimated by the House of Commons while Tory rebels triggered a vote of confidence in her.   May headed off the decimation – or rather, put it off to another day – …

US Election Odds – Democratic Party Nominations: Is Bernie Their Trump Card?

A recent poll suggested that Donald Trump would poll at most 42% despite his Democratic opponent being unknown. Delving deeper, the pollsters found the current President of the United States trailed by anywhere between 5 and 12 percentage points.  That’s a boost for any of the nominees whether or not they declared to run for the Democrats.  And a …

Spain General Election Odds: A Political Alphabet Soup

On 28th April 2019, the Spanish electorate will vote in their third General Election in three-and-a-half years. Such is the perverse nature of the country’s politics, it will be to elect their fourth government in that time.  Current Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez (PSOE party leader) took power when an alliance of opposition parties unseated the previous incumbent Mariano Rajoy …

Odds in Favour of Trump Winning the Next US Election

It always seems to look that no one wants Donald Trump to be the President of the USA. He has critics all over the place and next year faces having to win another election to stay in the White House. If he’s so hated, why is he favourite to win that election? Trump is currently …

Left March! Odds of the Next Labour Party Leader After Jeremy Corbyn

Focus in the media remains on the Conservative Party, whether it is over Brexit or who will replace Prime Minister Theresa May when she steps down before the next scheduled General Election in 2022.  Candidates to fill her role are not in short supply with every weekend seemingly bringing forth new leaks, gossip and Machiavellian …

Can Boris Beat the Odds and Defeat Gove to Become Tory Leader?

Theresa May has already said that she won’t lead the Conservatives into the next General Election. A new leader will have to be elected and there are several candidates to take over. Can Boris Johnson finally get the job we all know he so desperately wants? Do His Friends Outnumber His Enemies? Just when Theresa …

Brexit Odds: Chances of an Article 50 Extension Becoming Increasingly Unlikely

Bookies have slashed the odds of Brexit happening on the scheduled date of March 29th, indicating a growing feeling that an extension is unlikely. Despite the increased likelihood that no deal with the EU will be reached within the allotted time, there has been almost no discussion regarding a possible extension to Article 50 – …