Saturday 27 April: 3pm
This is a real crunch match in the Championship and the loser may well see their play-off hopes in real jeopardy. Bristol City start the game in eighth place, two below the final play-off position that is held by their opponents and a point adrift.
Bristol City have been blowing hot and cold for most of the season. April isn’t a time for them to be struggling for form but that’s what is happening to them. City have one point from their last three league games, a drop from the ten points earned from the previous four.
Their most recent game saw them lose 2-0 at Sheffield Wednesday and that left them in eighth place in the Championship. With three games to go, they are only a point behind that final promotion play-off position and simply have to win this game. That’s because it’s Derby County who occupy sixth place, so a win here will take City two points ahead of them with two games remaining.
A win won’t necessarily take them into the promotion play-offs. That’ll only happen if seventh-placed Middlesbrough fail to beat Reading at home. City are 2/1 (3.0) at Betfair to finish in the promotion play-off positions and 16/1 (17.0) with SkyBet to go on and win promotion.
Their home form isn’t inspiring though with only one win in their last six home league games. That includes three recent games against clubs currently in the bottom seven games and not a single victory. Their only win was at home to fourth-placed West Brom with a three-goal first-half scoring spree. It’s 13/10 (2.3) at BetVictor that City win this match.
Derby County looked to be heading for a disappointing home draw against Queens Park Rangers on Easter Monday. Then goals in the 94th and 101st minutes saw the game transformed into a 2-0 home victory that took them to sixth in the table. A win here will take them four points clear of their opponents and it’s 2/1 (3.0) at William Hill on Derby winning this match.
That win puts them in a good position with three games to go but they have a tough run-in. After this game, they travel to Swansea City (who have won their last six home league games) and a final day home match against West Bromwich Albion (who have won 11 away league matches this season). Bet365 will give you 11/8 (2.37) on a top six finish for Derby and it’s 11/1 (12.0) at SkyBet that Frank Lampard’s team are promoted.
Their away form has been holding the Rams back in recent months. Eight away league games have produced four points and that doesn’t get you into the Premier League. Even in a crazy world where a team 15 points behind third-place still has a chance of promotion via the play-offs.
Bristol City are unbeaten in their last five games against Derby County. Four have ended in draws and if you think this game will end level, it’s 23/10 (3.3) at Betway. Five of the last six games have seen both teams score and Unibet have odds of 4/6 (1.66) on both Derby and Bristol City scoring on Saturday.
No major injuries reported.
Brownhill in Form
Josh Brownhill has only scored six times this season but he’s been on target in both of the last two Bristol City home league games. You can get odds of 11/2 (6.5) at Paddy Power on him scoring in this game.
It took two penalties converted by Harry Wilson to get Derby their Easter Monday win. It’s 11/2 (6.5) with Betfair that Derby score a penalty in this game.
A vital game for both teams and a bit of a puzzle. Bristol City aren’t in great form and Derby County struggle on their travels. A draw with both teams to score has odds of 10/3 (4.33) at Betfred.