Tuesday 16 April : 7.45pm KO
A crunch match down at the bottom of the English Premier League as Brighton and Hove Albion host Cardiff City. It’s a game that the Welsh side has to win but Brighton know that victory for them should assure them of another season in the top-flight.
A week or so ago, Brighton and Hove Albion were at Wembley and dreaming of FA Cup glory. They lost their semi-final to Manchester City and now face a battle to stay in the Premier League. The weekend saw them lose 5-0 at home to Bournemouth and that left them one place above the relegation zone. They are 14/1 (15.0) at Paddy Power to be relegated this season but those odds will tumble if they lose this match.
Albion have a five-point lead over Cardiff City and have a game in hand. A win at the AMEX Stadium will surely get them safe and condemn their opponents to relegation. Can Brighton get the win though? Their current form is poor with only two wins in their last 12 league games. It’s 10/11 (1.91) at MoPlay that they get a win over Cardiff City on Tuesday evening.
It was their home form that kept them alive last season but that hasn’t been so consistent this time around. Brighton (not forgetting Hove of course) have only won two of their last nine home league matches. Scoring is their main problem with only two in the last six games. They can only be thankful that the teams in the relegation zone have probably never heard of ‘The Great Escape,’ let alone try to make one.
Cardiff City lost 2-0 at Burnley on Saturday and remain rooted on 28 points, five from safety. They have lost six of their last seven league games with the only win being at home to West Ham United who are terrible on their travels.
City have five games left to save themselves from relegation. Two of those five happen to be against Liverpool and Manchester United so they have to focus on the other three. Brighton and Fulham away and a home game against Crystal Palace are the targets and if somehow they could win those three, then who knows?
Away form isn’t too promising though with just eight points from 16 league games. Four of the last five have been lost and just nine goals scored. 12 out of 16 away league matches have ended in defeat and Cardiff have failed to score in their last two on the road. They need to find some goals from somewhere and are 7/2 (4.5) at William Hill to beat Brighton on Tuesday evening.
Brighton and Hove Albion have only won one of their last seven games against Cardiff City. That sole victory was at home in January 2017 thanks to a Tomer Hemed goal 17 minutes from time. Six of the last ten games between these two sides have ended in a draw including four out of five played at Brighton. You can get odds of 9/4 (3.25) at Betfred on this game ending all-square.
Anthony Knockaert will miss this game after being sent off against Bournemouth on Saturday.
Low Scoring Game
Seven of the last nine Brighton v Cardiff matches have had under 2.5 goals scored in them. Cardiff have failed to score in their last three away league games and Brighton have only scored in two of their last six home Premier League games. With six of the last eight Brighton home league matches having had under 2.5 goals scored in them, a bet on that stat looks good and SkyBet will give you odds of 4/7 (1.57) on it happening on Tuesday evening. .
Second Half Goals
If there are goals in this match, then they could well come in the second-half. The last three Brighton home league games have seen more goals scored in the second 45 mins. You can get odds of 11/10 (2.1) at Betfair on the second-half of this match being the highest scoring half.
Brighton have to bounce back after their disastrous defeat on Saturday. They’d probably be glad of a draw from this game to keep that five-point gap between them and Cardiff. Their opponents are in terrible form but know just how vital it is for them to win this game. Knockaert being suspended won’t help Brighton and a double chance bet on Cardiff to win or draw is 1/1 (2.0) at Bet365.