Bookies have slashed the odds of Brexit happening on the scheduled date of March 29th, indicating a growing feeling that an extension is unlikely.
Despite the increased likelihood that no deal with the EU will be reached within the allotted time, there has been almost no discussion regarding a possible extension to Article 50 – the document that defines the UK‘s departure from the EU. Both the UK government and the European Parliament seem to be preparing for a ‘No-deal’ Brexit, where the UK leaves the EU without any trade agreements in place. The Express reports that EU diplomats now believe there is a 90 percent chance of the UK leaving with no deal.
Both Ladbrokes and Coral are offering 7/4 odds that the UK will leave the EU with No Brexit Deal before 1st April 2019 – a bet that previously carried 7/2 odds this time last month.
UK Prime Minister Theresa May’s attempts at reaching a satisfactory deal have consistently been rejected by the House of Commons, with the Irish border backstop issue being the main sticking point. The PM’s most recent proposal was rejected 302 to 258 but despite the defeat, a Downing Street spokesman says the PM remains committed to leaving on March 29th. There is a believe amongst critics that May’s proposed legal changes to the Irish backstop mechanism could trap the UK in an EU customs union.
UK bookies BoyleSports have reduced odds of Brexit going ahead on the planned date from 4/1 to just 23/10.
Chances of an extension to Article 50 are still relatively high but have also been reduced from 1/7 odds to only 3/10.